The Dilemma That Keeps Egyptian Dictator Mubarak in Power and America Holding Its Nose
Posted: Monday, February 07, 2011
by Mogama
http://www.mogama.info
Herein lies a truism of international politics / foreign policy: No situation is ever as simple or straightforward as it appears. There are always complex webs of scenarios and possibilities to keep the best minds guessing, theorizing, doubting.
It is one such mind twister that we are seeing in Egypt, and the biggest loser so far is the Egyptian people, especially the pro-democracy demonstrators. A close follow-up loser is the United States, which has once again surfaced as a devoted sponsor of an autocrat, a tyrant. It’s obvious who the biggest winner is so far: Hosny Mubarak, who continues to outmaneuver the international community, though they can see through his crafty schemes.
Here is what Mubarak knows...this is his strong hand, and he will play it to the deadliest end, if he must: America needs Mubarak to moderate Arab sentiments towards Israel. America needs a stable Egypt. America needs the Suez Carnal open for oil to be transported across continents at a reasonable market price for American motorists.
Mubarak also knows this: the Egyptian army is a vast commercial enterprise whose primary customers are the Egyptian people. The army manufactures all manners of merchandise and products that Egyptians buy. This explains the somewhat cozy relationship between army and people. Yet the army needs Mubarak to prevent Egypt from descending into anarchy. Of course, the army could use heavy-handed tactics to clamp down on such anarchy, but that may turn the masses against the military. And that would be like Wal-Mart angering its customers.
As long as the army mediates between Mubarak and the demonstrators, the outcry of the masses will graduate into a faint whisper. Using the army as a buffer between himself and the angry masses, whose numbers are now dwindling, Mubarak can make two contradictory moves at the same time: openly make limited concessions to the demonstrators AND secretly arrest, threaten, harass, torture and even murder some of those he is seemingly conceding to.
Mubarak the autocrat has already revealed his Ace card: “I really want to step down, even now, but I am afraid Egypt might descend into chaos.” The implication is not who is leaving office, but who may take his place? And the tyrant wants pro-Israel, oil-addicted America to fill in the blank with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sharia-type Islamists, which would make Egypt a dirtier mess than Mubarak could have ever attempted.
Good for Mubarak, some key American politicians have bought into his reasoning. Chief among them are Republican Senator John McCain, and the Secretary Of State, Madam Hillary Clinton, who sound like they’re contradicting what President Obama is publicly telling Mubarak. As the saying goes, it’s far better to do business with the devil you know than the angel you don’t. Mubarak is America’s well-known devil; the United States helped to grow those horns, not to mention the pitch fork with which Mubarak is gutting journalists.
While I see the genuine fear that has American and other international leaders scratching their heads, the fact remains that we are buying into the typical dictator’s arrogance that he is the only one uniquely qualified to lead or save his nation. The truth is, even if Israel-hating Islamic fascists were to usurp the Egyptian revolution and grab power, I predict their reign would be temporary for one overriding reason: The Egyptian masses have tasted freedom, and in short order they will rise up again,without fear of religious brutality, to dethrone extremists like the Muslim Brotherhood.
So I say, call Mubarak bluff. Western democracies, led by America, should bear down on him to cede power now. Let us all prove to Mubarak that he can go down permanently without Egypt suffering his fate. Yes, the nation may endure transitional chaos, but hasn’t that often been part of the birth pangs of genuine democracy? Whatever anarchy ensues upon Mubarak’s departure will eventually be worth the price. America, the world’s leading democracy, does not have to hold its nose and continue to feed the tyrant while despising his insatiable greed for lifetime power.
But then again, lifetime President Mubarak knows full well that given the choice between democracy and stability, America and her allies will choose stability every time, and will pay for that choice with billions, all the while espousing the virtues of and the universal need for democracy. ~mogama~
Here is what Mubarak knows...this is his strong hand, and he will play it to the deadliest end, if he must: America needs Mubarak to moderate Arab sentiments towards Israel. America needs a stable Egypt. America needs the Suez Carnal open for oil to be transported across continents at a reasonable market price for American motorists.
Mubarak also knows this: the Egyptian army is a vast commercial enterprise whose primary customers are the Egyptian people. The army manufactures all manners of merchandise and products that Egyptians buy. This explains the somewhat cozy relationship between army and people. Yet the army needs Mubarak to prevent Egypt from descending into anarchy. Of course, the army could use heavy-handed tactics to clamp down on such anarchy, but that may turn the masses against the military. And that would be like Wal-Mart angering its customers.
As long as the army mediates between Mubarak and the demonstrators, the outcry of the masses will graduate into a faint whisper. Using the army as a buffer between himself and the angry masses, whose numbers are now dwindling, Mubarak can make two contradictory moves at the same time: openly make limited concessions to the demonstrators AND secretly arrest, threaten, harass, torture and even murder some of those he is seemingly conceding to.
Mubarak the autocrat has already revealed his Ace card: “I really want to step down, even now, but I am afraid Egypt might descend into chaos.” The implication is not who is leaving office, but who may take his place? And the tyrant wants pro-Israel, oil-addicted America to fill in the blank with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sharia-type Islamists, which would make Egypt a dirtier mess than Mubarak could have ever attempted.
Good for Mubarak, some key American politicians have bought into his reasoning. Chief among them are Republican Senator John McCain, and the Secretary Of State, Madam Hillary Clinton, who sound like they’re contradicting what President Obama is publicly telling Mubarak. As the saying goes, it’s far better to do business with the devil you know than the angel you don’t. Mubarak is America’s well-known devil; the United States helped to grow those horns, not to mention the pitch fork with which Mubarak is gutting journalists.
While I see the genuine fear that has American and other international leaders scratching their heads, the fact remains that we are buying into the typical dictator’s arrogance that he is the only one uniquely qualified to lead or save his nation. The truth is, even if Israel-hating Islamic fascists were to usurp the Egyptian revolution and grab power, I predict their reign would be temporary for one overriding reason: The Egyptian masses have tasted freedom, and in short order they will rise up again,without fear of religious brutality, to dethrone extremists like the Muslim Brotherhood.
So I say, call Mubarak bluff. Western democracies, led by America, should bear down on him to cede power now. Let us all prove to Mubarak that he can go down permanently without Egypt suffering his fate. Yes, the nation may endure transitional chaos, but hasn’t that often been part of the birth pangs of genuine democracy? Whatever anarchy ensues upon Mubarak’s departure will eventually be worth the price. America, the world’s leading democracy, does not have to hold its nose and continue to feed the tyrant while despising his insatiable greed for lifetime power.
But then again, lifetime President Mubarak knows full well that given the choice between democracy and stability, America and her allies will choose stability every time, and will pay for that choice with billions, all the while espousing the virtues of and the universal need for democracy. ~mogama~
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Top-level comments on this article: (1 total)The U.S. has asked today for a peaceful transition to power to the pro-democracy revolution. While the recently appointed vice president has warned against extending the revolt and has asked for an orderly transition to pro Mubarak associates, and has indicated that Egypt is not yet ready for democracy. I hope this plays out well for the people, but the vice is warning of military intervention should they not cease and desist soon. Power to the people!Please log in to respond to this comment."...Egypt is not yet ready for democracy." Those words are typical of dictatorial regimes, especially when they're in their final throes. Yes, David, "Power to the people!" ~mogama~Please log in to respond to this comment.
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