The Main Reasons Why Barack Obama May Lose to John McCain
Posted: Tuesday, August 26, 2008
by Mogama
http://www.mogama.info
The wonder of the 2008
presidential contest between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
John McCain is that it is still a contest at all. Of course, we may
tote the tired line that polls prior to the political parties'
conventions mean little or nothing. But one can't help but wonder why
this race is a contest at all.
You can bet your horse, if
you have one, Democrats are very nervous already. Some party leaders
are still questioning Barack's judgment. "Why didn't Obama put
Hillary on the ticket as his VP, if winning the presidency was his
number objective? How will Joe Biden help him win those angry Hillary
supporters, not to mention those battleground states?"
Here is why John McCain
should be trailing Barack Obama by at least 10 percentage points at
this point in the game:
-
Economic Recession: The economy is in the tank, with failing banks, high gasoline price, rising food price, and floods of foreclosures as the housing sector swims in the sewer of recession.
-
Unpopular President: For months now, President George Bush's job approval rating has been in the 20s and low 30s. As of August 24, a CNN poll showed the president with a 30 percent approval by Americans.
-
McCain Attachment to the Bush Agenda: If you can believe some of the reports and talking points, Senator John McCain has voted with Mr. Bush about 90 to 95 percent of the time. That means, there is no way McCain can be regarded by American voters as a change agent, since he may be able to only deliver a 10 percent change different from the Bush agenda.
In spite of all these
factors favorable to a Democratic landslide in November, Barack Obama
is in a dead heat with Senator McCain. If this trend continues –
Barack losing his lead over McCain, then tied with McCain, and now
trailing McCain in the latest Gallup poll – the Democrats may
actually see another Republican in the White House, to continue what
Democrats like to call "a third Bush term".
What is going on? Political
pundits are awash with theories as to the reason for the close
contest between Obama and McCain. Here is my best bag of speculation.
One reason is that domestic
issues have been truncated by international concerns. The leading
culprit is Russia's invasion of Georgia. To make matters worse,
Russia is on track to annex parts of Georgia. Such a turn of affairs
usually favors the Republican hawkish tendency. It may actually be
Vladimir Putin of Russia who who defeats Barack Obama on November
4th. What does not seem to make sense about America's
preference for McCain in dealing with the Russian-Georgian crisis,
though, is that Russia has boldly marched into Georgia under the very
nose of a Republican president, despite President Bush's warnings,
rebukes and threats aimed at Russia. What is a President McCain going
to do to the Russians that President Bush has not been able to do –
start bombing Moscow?
Another reason: The harsh
attacks on Barack Obama by fellow Democrats during the primary season
have come home to roost. Those relentless attacks have taken their
toll on the political junkie, and they may yet do further damage. The
McCain campaign has seized the audios and videos of the repeated
pounding against Obama of "lack of experience" and "not ready
to lead" by Senators Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton during the
Democratic primaries. McCain does not even need to use his own words,
except to say, "I am John McCain, and I approve this message",
every time they play the words of Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden (now
Obama's VP), slamming Barack for his perceived inexperience.
A third reason: Clever
underhand maneuvers by the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party are
starting to undermine Obama's chances of winning this race. As some
of us have maintained for months now, it does not serve Hillary's
presidential aspirations for Obama to be elected President of the
United States. If Barack wins, Mrs. Clinton may have to wait for 8
years before she can make a second run for the White House. But if
McCain wins, she can run again as early as 2012.
Fourth reason: Hillary
Clinton supporters have now gone beyond partisan politics to
religious zeal and devotion to their defeated candidate, whom they
now treat as a feminist deity, a goddess, whose worship deserves any
level of sacrifice they can make, even if it means the forfeiture of
the presidency by the Democrats in 2008. There is hardly anything
Mrs. Clinton can say to dissuade these ardent worshipers, not to
mention that, to these disciples, Clinton's hidden actions and
visible body language speak much louder than any clarion call she may
send forth for her followers to vote Obama for president. Besides,
the Clintonites will love nothing less than to suck it to the likes
of Michelle Obama, Ted Kennedy and Nancy Pelosi, and the entire
Barack wing of the Democratic Party. Barack's loss will amount to the
biggest "We told you so" from the Clinton establishment.
Sixth reason: The Rev.
Jeremiah Wright hangover has helped to create or confirm doubts about
a black man that may be too liberal for America. Though from
everything the nation has observed so far, Barack does not seem to
share Rev. Wright's militant spirit, a good number of white voters
may harbor sufficient doubts to tilt the elections in McCain's favor.
At present it seems the only black man some white voters can accept
is someone like General Collin Powell, who has an approval rating in
the 70s.
True, there is enough time
for things to change, but right now, one cannot but ask, "Is there
still hope for Barack Obama to win on November 4th?"
If there is such a hope, it
may come from two sources. One is Obama's own "audacity" to hope
against hope. Boy, does he need that "audacity of hope" right
now?!
The other source of hope is
something that some die-hard Obamaians have floated. They
suggest that the traditional polls being taken by CNN, Gallup, and
other pollsters are missing an important demographic ~ the cellphone
generation of young (college) voters, who proved to be firebrands for
the Obama movement during the primary elections. Those who hold this
view say that traditional pollsters normally call landlines, not
cellphone numbers, to poll voters. Mr. Obama can only hope that there
is some truth to that rumor, which may serve as his trump card come
elections day. We shall see.
Note: Your comments
to this article are more than appreciated.
Garswa,Not to worry. It is not in Hillary Clinton's best interest to sabotage the Presidential run of Barack Obama. It would not serve any positive purpose. She will connect the dots of the past with the future and unify the party as all Democrats, independents and many Republicans get on the horse to finish the race at the White House. Well written article!
Garswa, with all respect, does it really matter where the tire meets the road or is it only about being a black man? The man can become one of the greatest ever in history or he can set his race back 1000 years. You judge a man by his works, what he has done or failed to do not what he says. MLK a man who put his money where his mouth is an example for history. Tony Dungy a mans, man by his works! Please don't mix apples and oranges. It matters not who gets in as far as America goes other then he will make history and that he has already done. Lets see if he can be the man he claims he is?Thanks for your comment, Robert.
Oh, I agree with you 100%. In fact, I now wonder if Obama is sort of experiencing stage fright. He just crippled his campaign by a large degree, and therefore, crippled the Democratic parties potential to win.I haven't a clue as to why he did not choose Hilary as his running mate.Thanks, Jennifer, for your comment.
